Annual Review Template

Title: Human Rights and Peacebuilding Programme (HARP)
Programme Value £ (full life): £41 Million	Review date: 21/01/2024
Programme Code: 301191	AMP start date: 21/01/2022	AMP end date: 31/03/2027

Summary of Programme Performance

Year	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27
Overall Output Score	A	A	B
Risk Rating	Major	Major	Major

DevTracker Link to Business Case:	Business Case; Business Case Addendum
DevTracker Link to results framework:	Log-Frame

List of Key Acronyms

ACLED: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project

AR: Annual review

ACDD: Advocacy Center for Democracy and Development

ACCORD: the African Centre for Constructive Resolution of Dispute

AWPSI: Africa Women Peace and Security Institute

BE: British Embassy

CR: Conciliation Resources

CRSV: Conflict Related Sexual Violence

CSO:	Civil Society Organization

CETI: Climate Economy Trade and Investment Team

DIHR: Danish Institute for Human Rights

ELiDA: Empathy for life integrated for Development Association

EHRC: Ethiopian Human Right Commission

ENDF: Ethiopia National Défense Force

EMAP: Engaging Men in Accountable Practices

EWNET: Ethiopian Women’s Network for Education and Training

I4C- Initiative for Peace

IRCE: Inter-Religious Council of Ethiopia

FCDO: Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office

NHRI: National Human Rights Institutions

GBV:	Gender Based Violence

HARP: Human Rights and Peacebuilding program

HMG:	His Majesty’s Government

HR:	Human Rights

HD: Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue

JACS: Joint Assessment of Conflict and Stability

K4P:	Knowledge for Peace

M&E: Monitoring and Evaluation

MoU:	Memorandum of Understanding

NEBE: National Election Board of Ethiopia

NEWA: Network of Ethiopian Women’s Associations

NRC: National Rehabilitaion Committee

NDRP: National Demobilisation and Reintegration Programme

NHRI: National Human Rights Institutions

NRTD: National Recommendation Tracking Database

OHCHR’s: Office of High Commission for Human Rights

OSCs:	One Stop Centres:

OLA- Oromia Liberation Front

ONLF: Ogaden National Liberation Front

PRF: Peace Research Facility

PSEA: Protection from Sexual Exploitation and Abuse

RVI:	Rift Valley Institute

RGA-P: Rapid Gender Analysis on Power and Participation

SGBV: Survivors of Gender Based Violence

SIRAD: Somali Institute for Research and Development

SRVN: Somali Regional Victims Network

ToC:	Theory of Change

TRC: Truth and Reconciliation Commission

TPLF: Tigray People’s Liberation Front

UK:	United Kingdom

USRI:	Umbrella for Somali Region Intellectuals

UPR: Universal Periodic Review

UNDP: United Nations Development Programme

UN OHCHR: Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights

VFM:	Value for Money

WPS:	Women Peace and Security

WAT:	Women’s Association of Tigray

WLiE: Women Leading in Emergencies

WLOs: Women Lead Organizations

XCs - ex-combatants

A. SUMMARY AND OVERVIEW [1-1 ½ pages]

Description of programme [1-2 paragraphs]

The Human Rights and Peacebuilding programme (HARP) aims to reduce violence, protect civilians, and facilitate an inclusive transition out of conflict by addressing three key dimensions of Ethiopia’s instability: (1) political drivers, including competition for regional and national power during the transition; (2) inter-communal tensions, rooted in territorial disputes, competition for natural resources, and inequalities; and (3) the human rights crisis, characterized by widespread violations of international human rights law. To achieve these objectives, HARP implements five core components:

Reduce violence and support peace processes: support structures and processes to facilitate and implement peace agreements and sustainably resolve violent conflicts between communities, amongst regions and nationally.

Improve accountability for human rights and support transitional justice processes: provide financial and technical support for monitoring and investigation of human rights abuses, strengthen national institutions, and contribute to a credible transitional justice process.

Promote women peace and security (WPS) - increase women’s participation, leadership and representation in political dialogue, conflict resolution and response to violence and conflict, especially its impact on women and girls, including survivors of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV).

Strengthen conflict related policy and programming - provide evidence and expertise to guide diplomatic and programmatic activity, as well as to strengthen conflict sensitivity practices.

Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E): Added in HARP Phase 2 to enhance programmatic coherence, improve delivery and results communication, and ensure value for money across all components.

The HARP Phase 2 Business Case addendum was approved in January 2024, bringing the total programme budget to £41M up to March 2027. In line with the ProF guidance, the business case addendum was signed off by the then FCDO Africa Minister and HMT.

HARP remains a crucial pillar in achieving delivery of Goal 2 of the FCDO Ethiopia Country Business Plan 2023 -2025, to ‘support Ethiopia’s transition away from conflict and towards a more democratic and inclusive society, promoting women’s participation, defending UK values.

This annual review covers Phase 2 of the programme, which began in January 2024. CARE, Danish Institute for Human Rights (DIHR), Conciliation Resource (CR), and Rift Valley Institute (RVI), continued from Phase 1 but significantly expanded their scope and geographic coverage in Phase 2, addressing a broader range of issues and reaching more conflict-affected regions. Meanwhile, new partners, including Center for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD), UNDP, and UN OHCHR, joined HARP in Phase 2 and started their activities later this fiscal year (2024/25). HARP has prioritised the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda, recognising Ethiopia’s status as a focus country under the UK WPS National Action Plan (NAP). HARP has mainstreamed the WPS agenda in almost all partners activities and two additional WPS- focused program has launched in December 2024. Additionally, through HARP, the long-overdue reintegration and reinsertion programme for ex-combatants has commenced, marking an important milestone in the implementation of the COHA peace agreement.

In December 2024, recognising the increasing complexity of the programme and rapid growth in the number of partners, the FCDO moved a conflict adviser into the programme, with the intention of further driving results, and building greater partnerships between the various interventions.

Summary supporting narrative for the overall score in this review [1-2 paragraphs]

HARP achieved an overall output score of “B” reflecting its performance across peacebuilding, human rights monitoring and conflict research in a difficult context. In summary, this year has been a transition year for HARP. Progress has been made and the overall trajectory is positive, but the increased complexity, scope and size of the programme has presented challenges, delays in delivery and failures to adequately capture results. This review assesses that these issues are either being addressed or can be addressed in the coming year.

Over the reporting period, the programme experienced significant changes, including a quadrupling of the budget, shifts in programme objectives, and the addition of new partners. While these developments strengthen the foundation of the programme, they also led to a slowdown in actual delivery and results.

HARP’s overall trajectory underscores the need for continued investment to sustain its successes and address ongoing challenges. The programme has facilitated regional and community dialogues in Oromia, Afar and Somali regions bringing local stakeholders together to advance peace efforts and address drivers of conflict. HARP enhanced national and international human rights monitoring systems, with organizations like EHRC and UN-OHCHR increasing investigative capacity and reporting critical violations. The Peace Research Facility (PRF) has grown its audience, delivering monthly reports, conflict trend analyses, and regional briefings that informed diplomatic and programmatic decision-making. The facility’s monthly Bulletin now reaches political and development colleagues across the international community providing insights into the ongoing conflicts, integrating historical context with contemporary dynamics to guide common actions.

Despite this progress, milestones have not been met. For example, the reintegration of ex-combatants started late due to logistical and political challenges, efforts to promote Ethiopian women researchers in peace research remain in its early stages with tangible outcomes yet to be achieved and the women in leadership, peace and recovery project has been slow to mobilise and difficult to measure milestones are either only partially met or unmet. Addressing this should be a priority for the coming year.

Although substantial work was done to revise the logframe, it remains unsatisfactory and does not adequately capture what is being delivered by the programme. This is understandable given the rapid scale up and nature of the transition into the second phase of the programme. However, moving forward, it is essential to revise and improve the logframe, ensuring that the indicators, baselines, and milestones are not only relevant but also appropriately aligned with the programme’s goals. This will provide a clearer roadmap for tracking progress and achieving the desired results. Contracting an external M&E provider, as planned but delayed this year, will provide valuable quality assurance to this process

The AR was conducted by BE Addis conflict advisers and relied on evidence provided by partners and on conflict datasets by external organisations like ACLED. We did not bring in external reviewers, given the major focus on bringing new partners and scaling up the programme. However, it is good practice to have external reviewers, and this will happen next year, working with an external MEL provider.

Output	Score	Weighting %
1	National and regional peace, reconciliation and conflict resolution processes are more effective, coordinated, inclusive (of the main political actors, conflict parties and local community) and accountable.	B	35%
2	Women, girls and WLOs, and their communities, have increased capacity for, and participation, in mediation, peacebuilding and recovery processes	C	25%
3	National human rights monitoring and early warning systems are strengthened, international monitoring increased	A	25%
4	Increased exposure of HMG, international and national actors to quality conflict research and analysis, and conflict sensitivity advice/support, provided in response to demand	A	15%

Major lessons and recommendations for the year ahead [1/2 page]

At the time of writing the AR, the space for CSO working in human rights and advocacy appears to be shrinking and organizations are expecting operational constraints, which poses significant risk to HARP by limiting partners ability to monitor human rights violation, and advocate policy change. Restrictions can delay implementation, weaken advocacy efforts critical to achieving programme objectives and increase risks for implementing partners’ staff, potentially jeopardizing their safety. The first recommendation therefore is for BE Addis to closely monitor and explore alternative delivery approaches. This might include more work through consortiums to protect individual organisations.

The second main recommendation is to strengthen coordination among partners working toward similar goals, such as on WPS, peace process initiatives and human rights monitoring to enhance programme efficiency and prevent duplication of efforts. The programme funded adviser will lead on this work.

The third recommendation is for BE Addis to review and refine the HARP log frame Baselines, indicators and milestones require adjustment to ensure clarity and precision. Furthermore, with the inclusion of new programmes, the log frame must be revised to integrate the additional WPS programmes under the WPS component. This revision will ensure that all indicators and milestones are specific, measurable, and aligned with the program objectives.

Finally, BE Addis should prioritize the procurement of the new M&E component introduced under the Business Case addendum. This component will help refine the theory of change, enhance policy alignment, and provide technical support to both BE Addis and partners. Additionally, it will conduct specific evaluations, improve data quality, and develop learning products to inform the programme’s direction. The launch of this component is essential to strengthening programme delivery, ensuring accountability, and demonstrating value for money across all components.

Key Recommendations	Who	When
Monitor the operating space for CSOs and explore alternative delivery approaches if needed.	BE Addis	On going
Strengthen coordination among partners working toward similar goals	Programme Funded Role	On going
BE Addis to review and refine the HARP log frame	BE Addis,	March 2025
Prioritise the implementation of the new M&E component	BE Addis	April 2025

B: THEORY OF CHANGE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS OUTCOMES [1-2 pages]

Summarise the programmes theory of change, including any changes to outcome and impact indicators from the original business case. [1/2 page]

The Theory of Change (ToC) as stated in the Business Case remains valid. Following the business Case addendum, the outcomes, outputs and indicators in the ToC and Log Frame were updated to reflect all partner outputs and outcomes, although, as outlined below, some require further updating and in particular the Log Frame indicators and milestones require improving. The update was developed, together with partners, by the programme team, PRO and a conflict and evaluation adviser, and then finalised by the SRO. As the changes were non-materiality was approved by the Development Director per PRoF rules in July 2024. The theory of change is shown in the diagram below and the main changes at outcome level are reflected in the table below (Summary of Changes in July 2024) and in Annex 1 (Log Frame).

At Impact level, the programme aims to contribute to a reduction in the levels of violent conflict and increased space for peaceful political transition. This can be achieved if HARP invests:

resources into inclusive peacebuilding initiatives, including women, girls and other marginalise groups in dialogue platforms that have shown evidence of success;

in strengthening gender-sensitive systems, services and capacities for supporting victims of, and investigating, Human Rights abuses and violations;

in a conflict research facility that provides evidence to guide and shape our diplomatic and programmatic activities (and those of the wider community).

Several assumptions underpin this ToC, including 1) There is political will, at least at the local level, to resolve conflict; 2) Local level peacebuilding interventions can make a meaningful difference to local dynamics, even if national politics remain unchanged 3) There is sufficient access to conflict affected areas to enable services to survivors of Human Rights abuses and violations 4) Conflict actors have constituencies to which they are responsive 5) Human Rights CSOs are able to operate freely and accountability mechanisms will be sufficiently unbiased and non-politicised to make progress.

Summary of changes
Outcomes	July 2023	July 2024	Key Changes
Outcome 1	Inclusive peace processes are enabled with sustained engagement of the main political and conflict parties, local communities, women, and youth	Sustained peace and conflict resolution processes make progress towards the non-violent management or resolution of armed conflicts	Expanded focus to include added programmes (UNDP and HD), alongside the shift from enabling inclusive processes to emphasizing progress in peace and conflict resolution
Outcome 2	Women and girls directly affected by crisis in Northern Ethiopia have greater access to GBV response services and greater influence within the humanitarian response replaced outcome 2 of the business case draft logical framework.	Greater leadership and influence of women, girls and WLOs (including SGBV survivors) in mediation, peacebuilding and recovery processes	Broadened scope from GBV focus to leadership and influence in mediation, peacebuilding and recovery.
Outcome 3	Strengthened systems and services limit harms posed by Human Rights abuses and violations, and promote accountability in support of long-term peace	Reduced human rights abuses and violations and increased atrocity prevention	Refined focus from strengthening systems and services to reducing abuses and emphasizing atrocity prevention.
Outcome 4	Conflict analysis and research improve programmatic and advocacy interventions by HMG as well as national and international actors	Increased exposure of HMG, international and national actors to quality conflict research and analysis, and conflict sensitivity advice/support, provided in response to demand	Added emphasis on providing conflict sensitivity advice/ support in response to demand.

Describe where the programme is on/off track to contribute to the expected outcomes and impact. What action is planned in the year ahead? [1/2 page]

HARP has shown mixed progress in contributing to its expected outcomes and impact. While strides have been made in areas such as human rights monitoring (Outcome 3) and conflict research (outcome 4), challenges persist, particularly in meeting milestones of women in leadership, peace and recovery (Outcome 2) and conflict reduction in regions like Amhara and Oromia.

Key achievements include facilitating multiple conflict resolution processes across regions such as Oromia, Afar, and Somali, and demobilising over 6,055 ex-combatants (XCs). HARP has enhanced national and international human rights monitoring systems, with organizations like EHRC and UN-OHCHR increasing investigative capacity and reporting critical violations. The PRF has been instrumental in providing conflict analysis that guide programmatic and diplomatic decisions.

However, some areas remain off track. ACLED data does not show decrease in conflict and political violence events in any of the regions under review, and women in leadership, peace and recovery (outcome 2) is off track in contributing to its expected outcomes, scoring a C due to unmet or partially met milestones mainly caused by lack of measurable indicators and project delays. Efforts to amplify Ethiopian women scholars in research remain in their early stages, with no tangible outcomes yet. Additionally, escalating violence in Amhara and Oromia regions has hindered broader impact, despite notable successes in Tigray and Somalia region. Outcome 4 (conflict sensitive programming) has met its milestone, but there is an increasing need to do more to prioritize conflict sensitivity programming given Ethiopia’s complex security challenges.

In the year ahead, the programme plans to focus on strengthening conflict sensitivity mechanisms, particularly through the launch of the Conflict Sensitivity Hub, which will be a resource for any development partner to access conflict sensitivity advice on programme design and implementation phases. HARP will also accelerate initiatives under the WPS agenda to enhance women’s engagement in peace processes and research. The log frame will be reviewed and updated to ensure it reflects accurate milestones, while close monitoring of the operational space for CSOs will help mitigate risks. Additionally, technical support provided by ASL on the DDR processes will be expanded to ensure the programme’s impact aligns with its objectives.

While challenges persist, HARP’s achievements underscore its importance and potential to drive meaningful change in Ethiopia’s conflict landscape. A flexible and coordinated approach will be essential to maintaining progress toward the programme’s long-term goals

Outcome1. Sustained peace and conflict resolution processes make progress towards the non-violent management or resolution of armed conflict

Indicator 1.1: Progress made towards armed conflict being managed or resolved non-violently.

Milestone: At least 5 examples of conflicts resolution/dialogue processes progressing since April 2024 (to cover minimum three regions formal and informal processes)

Milestone: Met

Since April 2024, progress has been made towards non-violent conflict resolution, with five key dialogue and mediation processes facilitated across Oromia, Afar, and Somalia, meeting the set milestone. In Oromia, a negotiation was achieved through a deal between an OLA faction and the Ethiopian National Défense Force (ENDF) in December 2024, signalling potential for reduced violence and laying the groundwork for further peace negotiations. Mediation efforts also played a pivotal role in addressing internal divisions within the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), where facilitated dialogue led to the unification of leadership factions, strengthening their collective position and fostering political stability.

In addition to these formal negotiations, grassroots initiatives have proven effective in resolving local conflicts. In Moyale, tensions over a disputed police station were de-escalated through community-based mediation led by the Somali Research and Development Institute (SIRAD) and the Council of Peace and Unity (CPU), restoring peace at the local level. Moreover, under the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) in Tigray, the demobilization and reintegration of 6,055 ex-combatants (4,314 male and 1,741 female) marked a critical step towards post-conflict recovery and long-term stability.

Despite these achievements, challenges remain that could hinder sustained peace efforts. In Oromia, some OLA factions continue to operate outside formal dialogue processes, posing risks to long-term conflict resolution. Additionally, persistent regional tensions in areas like Moyale highlight the need for deeper grassroots engagement to address underlying grievances. To maintain and build on the current momentum, it will be essential to strengthen partnerships among peacebuilding actors, enhance coordination, and adopt adaptive strategies that respond effectively to the evolving conflict dynamics across the regions.

Indicator 1.2: Number of Conflict- related violence events in Ethiopia reduced by region (Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, Somalia- Afar)

Milestone: Somali: 5% less events, Oromia: 25% less, Amhara: 5%, Tigray: 15% less events (source: ACLED data)

Milestone: Not Met.

Region	2023	2024	Target	Variation
Amhara	575	1717	5%	+ 67%
Oromia	604	833	25%	+ 27%
Tigray	14	67	15%	+ 79%
Somali	13	51	5%	+ 75%

The ACLED Data (https://epo.acleddata.com/monthly) reports a significant increase in conflict- related violence in all regions. In Tigray and Somali regions an increase has been noticed over the last months of the reporting year, while in Amhara and Oromia has kept steady throughout the year with a decrease in the month of December

In Amhara region incidents involved Fano militias clashing with federal forces (ENDF) and local authorities. By mid-2024, the region accounted for over 60% of recorded violence in the country, including 682 fatalities in June alone from 114 political violence events. In Oromia region violence is attributed to confrontations with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and other insurgent activities.

In 2024, violence in Ethiopia’s Somali region appears to have increased since last year, but conflict levels in the region have decreased since the disarmament of the ONLF. While attribution is difficult, Conciliation Resources peacebuilding and mediation activities with the Government and within communities may have contributed to a more peaceful Somali Region.

Outcome 2: Greater leadership and influence of women, girls and WLOs (including SGBV survivors) in mediation, peacebuilding and recovery processes

Indicator 2.1: Number and description of advocacy/influencing 'wins' based on women's priorities for recovery, peace and security (including by SGBV survivors).

Milestone: At least 2 new examples since April 2024

Milestone: Not Met

During the reporting period, implementing partners—CARE, HD, and CR—undertook various activities to advance women’s leadership and influence in peacebuilding and recovery processes. However, no outcome-level advocacy or influencing ‘wins’ can be confirmed at this stage.

Persistent barriers, including deeply rooted social and political inequalities, continue to limit women’s participation in formal decision-making processes, particularly within Ethiopia’s peacebuilding landscape. Moving forward, newly added programs under HAPR Component 2—Building Localization and Resilience for the WPS Agenda (implemented by ACCORD) and Women Count for Peace (implemented by ELiDA), set to begin in December 2024—are expected to offer targeted approaches to strengthen women’s leadership and drive sustainable progress toward achieving meaningful advocacy outcomes.

Indicator 2.2: Promotes the visibility and create opportunities for Ethiopian women academics to amplify and/or participate in research.

Milestone: At least 2 examples since April 2024 of Ethiopian women scholars who have the opportunity to participate/amplify their research

Milestone: Not met

Efforts to meet this milestone are underway but remain at an early stage. RVI has made progress by initiating preparations for the Ethiopian Women’s Network for Education and Training (EWNET). The appointment of leadership and the development of a work plan are positive steps. However, the milestone remains unmet as no tangible outcomes, such as examples of women scholars amplifying their research, have not yet been achieved. The official launch of EWNET in January 2025 is expected to create significant opportunities for Ethiopian women academics to participate in research and amplify their work.

Outcome 3: Reduced human rights abuses and violations and increased atrocity prevention

Indicator 3.1: Number of recommendations proposed by human rights organizations to authorities for integration of human right concerns in policy making while implementing peace making processes (COHA and others)

Milestone: 12 requests to EHRC to engage in specialised for a targeting reform of human rights legislation, institutions, formulation of policies etc.

Milestone: Not met

The exact number of requests remains confidential and the EHRC reporting consolidates data for all donors rather than specifying details for individual log frames. For this reason, we assess this milestone as not met.

Nothwistanding, partners have made progress in enhancing both the quantity and quality of HR engagement and recommendations provided to domestic institutions. EHRC efforts include publishing 34 statements and reports on critical human rights issues, whose recommendations underpinned progress made in government engagement and achieved strategic interventions to inform progress and reform of policies such as Safeguarding of Migrant Workers' Rights, IDPS and reparation for victims of human rights violations. Throughout the year the EHRC also fostered institutional collaboration via five exchanges with other National Human Rights Commissions.

On 5 July 2024, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) published its 3rd Annual Human Rights Situation Report, covering the period from June 2023 to June 2024. It called on the Parliament to support the implementation of its recommendations and emphasized the urgent need for a peaceful national dialogue. The report provided owan assessment of the impact of State of Emergency Proclamation No. 6/2015 on the human rights situation and addressed critical issues, including detention conditions and the treatment of detainees, election monitoring in various regions, and an evaluation of the country’s fulfilment of its human rights obligations at regional and international levels.These efforts underscore the critical role of partnerships in driving sustainable progress toward accountability, justice, and the rule of law.

Indicator 3.2: Political violence against civilians’ events (ACLED)

Milestone: Somali-5% less political violence against civilians; Tigray-5%; Amhar-5% ; Oromia-10%

Milestone not met

Number of incidents by type over previous two quarters

Region	2023	2024	Target	Variation
Amhara	1700	2930	5%	+ 42%
Oromia	605	835	10%	+ 28%
Tigray	15	67	5%	+ 78%
Somali	10	17	5%	+ 41%

During the reporting period, political violence against civilians has kept steady high in Oromia and, Amhara with Amhara being the region which recorded the highest number of political violence episodes. Tigray and Somali region had fewer political violence incidents compared to Amhara and Oromia but still record an increase.

Publicly available information indicates the Ethiopian security forces (military and police) mount the highest number of attacks on civilians, compared to other militant groups in the country. The OLF-OLA and FANO militia seem to frequently use violent tactics on civilians. Tigrayan forces on the other hand, appear to have significantly reduced attacks on civilians as of 2024, following Pretoria peace negotiations of 2022.

Although the picture may seem discouraging, it is important to note that the program has limited capacity to drive nationwide change in political violence. However, it can influence, prepare for or sustain peace and dialogue processes. This has been evident through interventions in Tigray, Oromia and Somali region, in particular the long-term investment in peacebuilding in Somali region underscores the importance of sustaining and intensifying these efforts.

Indicator 3.3: Increase in human rights monitoring missions leading to the documentation and verification of human rights violations.

Milestone: 180 monitoring missions per year (Averagely 15 monitoring missions a month)

Milestone Met

The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) conducted 254 in-person monitoring missions during the reporting period, significantly surpassing its target. This achievement resulted in enhanced documentation of human rights incidents and events, enhancing the overall effectiveness of its monitoring efforts.

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has increased its investigative capacity and conducted investigations in remote areas, focusing on the rights of women and children while also monitoring prisons and police stations in conflict-affected regions such as Oromia and Amhara, particularly under the State of Emergency. Additionally, the EHRC reported housing rights violations, including illegal demolitions in Jimma, Oromia, showcasing its enhanced investigative capacity and commitment to addressing diverse human rights concerns.

Outcome 4: Conflict analysis and Research and conflict sensitivity advice/support informed programmatic and diplomatic approach by HMG as well as national and international actors

Indicator 4.1: Extent to which HMG teams use the findings and recommendations of analysis and research in their programming and diplomacy

Milestone: At least 1 example since April 2024 of applied recommendations and/or findings from the conflict analysis and research work improve HMG's and other international and national actors ongoing policy and programming interventions.

Milestone Met

HMG and stakeholders have benefitted from the Peace Research Facility (PRF) that was established by the programme. PRF has produced monthly reports, as well as complementary analysis such as conflict trend reports and regional briefings (attended by HMG and the wider international community) which have fed into regular BE Addis Political Reporting, the Joint Assessment of Conflict and Stability and various ministerial Briefings). In addition, the monthly Bulletin has directly informed a piece of political analysis on the Amhara conflict, which included a study of historical contexts and current dynamics.

Indicator 4.2. More FCDO programmes are conflict sensitive

At least 1 example of FCDO programme being conflict sensitive.

Milestone Met

RVI has conducted two conflict sensitivity assessments for the Climate Economy Trade and Investment Team (CETI) during the reporting period. The first assessment reviewed the Accelerate programme, which is implemented by GIZ, to evaluate its conflict sensitivity measures. The second assessment focused on the Manufacturing Africa programme (MA), specifically examining conflict dynamics and sensitivity risks related to their support for a mining company in Tigray. The CETI team received feedback on both assessments, and they are now working to incorporate the recommendations into the programme.

However, while the milestone has been marked as met, the quality of the assessments is open to scrutiny. The CETI team faced challenges in translating the findings and recommendations into actionable changes for the programmes. Additionally, the indicators used to measure success need to be revised, rather than focusing on the number of assessments conducted. The indicator should emphasize the tangible impacts that improve programmes to make them genuinely conflict sensitive.

Justify whether the programme should continue, based on its own merits and in the context of the wider portfolio [1 paragraph]

The business case amendment made the case for scaling up HARPs work, and this year has been one of adaptation, and bringing new components and partners on board to meet an FS priority around conflict and security. While results have been limited in this foundation year, the programme is targeting the right issues to deliver on the business plan.

C. DETAILED OUTPUT SCORING [aim for 1 page per output]

Output Title	National and regional peace, reconciliation and conflict resolution processes are more effective, coordinated, inclusive (of the main political actors, conflict parties and local community) and accountable.
Output number:	1	Output Score:	B
Impact weighting (%):	35%	Weighting revised since last AR?	No

Indicator(s)	Milestone(s) for this review	Progress
1.1. Examples of regional and national dialogue and peace processes (national, Tigray, Oromia, Amhara, Somali) meaningfully including key stakeholders (opposition, non-state actors and marginalised groups)	At least 4 examples of inclusive dialogue processes since April 2024.	A+ moderately exceeded expectation (partners had facilitated 6 dialogues including different stakeholders)
1.2. Number of x-combatants inserted back into their community as civilians (at least 25% women; child combatants TBC; people with disabilities TBC)	30,000	C Substantially not met expectation (only demobilised and re-inserted 6,055 XCs as of December 2024)
1.3. % of strategic objectives in the Somali Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC)'s detailed implementation matrix met	At least 75% of activities/indicators planned for 2024 have been met	B Moderately did not meet expectation

Briefly describe the output’s activities and provide supporting narrative for the score.

Indicator 1.1: Examples of regional and national dialogue and peace processes (national, Tigray, Oromia, Amhara, Somali) meaningfully including key stakeholders (opposition, non-state actors and marginalised groups)

Milestone: Moderately exceeds expectation (6 dialogue including different stakeholders)

A total of six inclusive dialogue initiatives have been facilitated, exceeding the target of four, and have meaningfully included a wide range of stakeholders, such as opposition groups, marginalised communities, and non-state actors. These efforts reflect significant progress toward the program’s goal of fostering inclusive and accountable peace processes.

The ONLF mediation facilitated by CR is a key success, demonstrating high-level engagement between the senior leadership of the ONLF's two factions. By bringing together these pivotal figures, the process ensured that both internal factions were included, fostering a sense of ownership and commitment to the peace process from all sides.

CR also facilitated expert analysis to understand the faction better and to come up with solution. the inclusion of both local and external experts in the analysis of ONLF’s internal divisions is a clear example of incorporating a diversity of perspectives. Also, the analysis focuses on understanding the ‘root causes’ of divisions within ONLF allowed for the identification of specific internal and external factors such as the MoU tensions with Ethiopia and Somalia that could affect stability. This approach ensures that solutions are not just superficial but address the deeper issues that stakeholders face.

The ONLF dialogue resulted in a decision to delay an extraordinary central committee meeting, which had caused tensions, represents a proactive measure to create space for dialogue and reduce immediate risks. This delay was a sign of the commitment from one faction to the peace process and indicated their willingness to engage in discussions, further demonstrating the importance of involving stakeholders in de-escalation efforts.

Similarly, the Somali-Afar Dialogue through Intellectual Associations (USRI & AFIA) also exemplifies meaningful stakeholder engagement at the civil society level. The Umbrella of Somali Region Intellectuals (USRI) and Afar Intellectuals Association (AFIA) established joint dialogue initiatives, demonstrating the role of intellectuals in identifying root causes of conflict and creating actionable peace roadmaps.

CR has convened three meetings between selected Somali and Oromo civic actors that highlights strategic efforts to connect elite-level peacebuilding with grassroots engagement. Mapping conflict drivers and stakeholders is an important step that ensures that all relevant actors are brought into the dialogue process, increasing the likelihood of peace in the two regions.

Similarly, HD with its local partner, Initiative for peace (I4C) convened the final round of the dialogue session in June 2024. The dialogue process involved four rounds of sessions to deliberate on identifying ways for the Oromo elite to settle the ongoing armed conflict in the region. I4C has since been compiling the outcome document on proceedings of the elite dialogue to inform relevant stakeholders including those working towards a peaceful settlement in Oromia. The completion of four rounds of dialogue reflects a progressive engagement with Oromo elites to address the armed conflict in the region. The outcomes of the dialogue sessions will be compiled into an outcome document, ensuring that findings and recommendations are shared with all relevant stakeholders and used to guide future peace efforts. The ongoing dialogue with I4C and its intention to inform broader peace processes demonstrates how iterative dialogues and the documentation of outcomes contribute to a learning process that improves engagement with multiple stakeholders over time.

Finally, the Moyale Dialogue facilitated by CR exemplifies successful local-level peacebuilding by involving a broad spectrum of stakeholders, including local authorities, community groups, and youth. However, scaling such initiatives to other regions remains a challenge, particularly in areas with more entrenched conflicts.

Indicator 1.2: Number of x-combatants inserted back into their community as civilians (at least 25% women; child combatants TBC; people with disabilities TBC)

Milestone: Substantially not met expectation (only demobilised and re-inserted 6,055 XCs as of December 2024)

While initial steps have been taken to establish operational demobilisation sites in Tigray, progress has fallen significantly short of the milestone target. As of December 20, 2024, only 6,055 ex-combatants (XCs) have been demobilized and reintegrated into their communities, compared to the target milestone of 30,000. Of the total processed, 4,314 (71%) are male and 1,741 (29%) are female.

The demobilization phase officially commenced on November 23, 2024, with two operational sites established in Tigray and a third site planned but not yet functional. The National Rehabilitation Commission (NRC) is implementing a phased approach spanning sixteen months, with four phases planned: the first phase targeting 75,000 XCs, the second 100,000, the third 150,000, and the final phase wrapping up with 46,971 XCs. Processing is set at a rate of 320 XCs per day across multiple centres.

The program’s inclusivity targets, which include ensuring that at least 25% of XCs are women, as well as addressing the inclusion of child combatants and persons with disabilities, were partially met. Notably, 29% of XCs are women. However, the UNDP report lacks fully disaggregated data on other demographic groups, such as child combatants and persons with disabilities. This gap in data on those demobilized and reintegrated limits the ability to assess whether the program’s broader inclusivity and equity goals are being fully achieved.

Looking ahead, challenges threaten the program’s success. Tigray’s fragile stability, ongoing negotiations about subsequent phases, and constraints in funding and logistics pose significant risks. Furthermore, the DDR process typically requires a robust reintegration component. However, the high cost of demobilization and reinsertion has left reintegration efforts severely underfunded. This gap presents a critical threat to the sustainability of the entire process. To address this broad challenge, the new programme implemented through Adam Smith International (ASL), should provide recommendations to the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA), and donors a) to enhance the regional government's capacity to plan and lead reintegration efforts, and b) ensuring existing programmes are adoptable to integrate cross-cutting components to integrate XCs.

Indicator 1.3: % of strategic objectives in the Somali Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC)'s detailed implementation matrix met

Milestone: moderately did not meet expectation

This milestone is not met. Across 35 planned activities for this year, 9 are completed resulting in an approximate 26% completion rate. 12 activities are ongoing, showing progress but still falls short of 75%.

While substantial advancements have been made in certain areas, such as Truth-Seeking, where over half of the activities are completed or ongoing, progress in other strategic objectives remains limited. For example, in “Support Victims of Violence,” most planned activities are either pending or in preparation stages, with only one showing progress. Similarly, “Ensure Restorative Justice” and “Promote Non-Recurrence” exhibit minimal achievements relative to their planned activities, highlighting areas requiring additional focus.

During an interview with CR, CR highlighted that, the strategic plan serves as a valuable framework for guiding CR support but does not encompass all aspects of the commission’s work. CR’s approach is inherently flexible, prioritizing the commission’s immediate needs and aligning with evolving priorities. Efforts focus on complementing existing initiatives and tailoring support to specific needs. Consequently, certain critical CR activities, such as support for the Advisory Committee and linkages with the Federal Transitional Justice mechanism, are not explicitly reflected in this matrix.

The gaps in activity completion highlight the need for adaptive strategies to accelerate implementation while maintaining responsiveness to the commission’s dynamic priorities. Future efforts should aim to bridge these gaps, ensuring a balance between planned objectives and emerging needs to achieve more comprehensive outcomes. Indicators and milestones should be updated to reflect this approach

Describe any changes to this output during the past year, and any planned changes as a result of this review. [1 paragraph]

Output 1 has been updated to capture project level outputs of the two added programmes under component one: 1) HD’s mediation, dialogue and conflict prevention programme, and 2) UNDPs’ National Demobilisation and Reintegration programme.

Progress on recommendations from the previous AR (if completed), lessons learned this year and recommendations for the year ahead [1-2 paragraphs]

One of the recommendations from last year AR was CR to develop an action plan to bring peace and security structures together at the local level in the Somali Regional State to enhance conflict prevention and sensitivity. In response, CR facilitated coordination meetings from January to March 2024, identifying challenges such as limited capacity in conflict analysis, lack of female representation, and uncoordinated interventions. To address these, CR plans to provide specialized training, establish joint task forces, and enhance collaboration with international partners and civil society organizations.

Second recommendation CR and BE to consider leveraging the voices of religious leaders to promote peace messaging in an appropriate and conflict-sensitive manner. In response, CR collaborated with CPU and the regional Islamic Affairs Council, engaging religious leaders in de-escalating tensions in the Somali-Afar and Somali Oromo conflicts. Following the 2022 Al-Shabaab attacks, religious leaders played a pivotal role in community mobilization and peace promotion. Building on this success, CR’s local partners have integrated religious leaders into planned dialogues alongside civic actors and intellectuals, recognizing their essential role in peacebuilding efforts.

Third recommendation was BE and CR to explore the creation of a Somali Regional State ‘hub’ of donors and partners working on the humanitarian, development, peace nexus to improve coordination and share information/lessons learned. The Somali Regional State is in the beginning stages of developing coordination mechanisms for HDP and climate-peace nexus through their multi-year resilience building plan. CR will continue to explore ways to support the regional government in addition to exploring ways to coordinate various peace building efforts in the region with humanitarian work. Looking ahead, the key recommendation is listed below to leverage the lessons learned during this reporting period.

lessons learned this year and recommendations for the year ahead

This reporting period highlighted that, the TRC strategic plan serves as a valuable framework for guiding CR support but does not encompass all aspects of the commission’s work. CR’s approach is inherently flexible, prioritizing the commission’s immediate needs and aligning with evolving priorities. This lesson informs the recommendation for CR to accelerate the completion of TRC’s underperforming activities by providing tailored technical support that prioritizes inclusivity, particularly in areas like supporting victims of violence and restorative justice.

Challenges in the DDR process, such as the significant gap between targets and actual reintegration numbers, highlighted the need for robust planning, sustained funding, and comprehensive data collection. This directly supports the recommendation for UNDP to enhance data systems to include disaggregated information on key demographics (e.g., child ex-combatants and persons with disabilities), ensuring that reintegration efforts are both inclusive and measurable. Additionally, to address sustainability issues in DDR, the recommendation for HAPR to adopt ASL’s guidance aims to strengthen regional government capacity and integrate cross-cutting reintegration strategies.

Lastly, coordination gaps between implementing partners revealed inefficiencies that could hinder program impact. This aligns with the recommendation for BE to improve coordination across CR, HD, and UNDP programmes, maximizing synergies and ensuring more coherent peacebuilding interventions.

Key recommendation for the year ahead is listed below to leverage the lessons learned during this reporting period.

Recommendations
HAPR to uptake Adam Smith International (ASL) recommendations to ensure sustainability of the DDR processes	June 2025
CR to prioritize accelerating the completion of TRC’s planned activities in underperforming areas such as ‘Support victims of violence’ and ‘Ensuring Restorative Justice’ by providing additional technical support to the commission	September 2025
UNDP to enhance data collection and reporting system to include comprehensive, disaggregated data on all targeted demographics groups such as child XCs and persons with disabilities.	April 2025
4	BE through the programme funded post, improve coordination between programmes (CR, HD and UNDP) given that partners are working towards similar goals, enhancing coordination between these bodies could improve efficiency and impact of the programme.	On going
5	BE Addis to update the milestone for the DDR programme to reflect the actual agreed number (November 2023) of direct beneficiaries (ex-combatant) of the FCDO funding.	March 2025

Output Title	Women, girls and WLOs, and their communities, have increased capacity for, and participation, in mediation, peacebuilding and recovery processes
Output number:	2	Output Score:	C
Impact weighting (%):	25	Weighting revised since last AR?	No

Indicator(s)	Milestone(s) for this review	Progress
2.1 #% women reporting a change in confidence in their own negotiation, communication and leadership skills	Rapid Gender analysis in Power and Participation undertaken; WLiE approach TOT training conducted for Core project staff; Four new WLIE groups established; Reflection sessions completed with existing eight WLIE groups; Co-creation session completed with existing eight WLiE groups; Four existing WLiE groups will start implementing Action plan.	B-moderately did not meet expectation.
2,2 % of community members (men & women) who report gender equitable attitudes on women's right and women's capacity as leaders and decision makers	WLiE and EMAP approaches training with front line CARE and partner staff provided; On-the-job familiarization of the SAA and EMAP tools (adapted for WLiE objectives) conducted for front line CARE and partner staff; EMAP approach introduced to community members; Men's group sessions on EMAP curriculum started; Community engagement meetings with community members and community leaders will be started	C- substantially did Not met expectation
2,3 Level of participation of women, girls and WLOs in dialogue, advocacy and platforms in regions such as Tigray, Somali, Oromia, Amhara and Afar	At least 2 new examples since April 2024 demonstrated increased participation of women, girls and WLOs dialogue and advocacy platforms (CARE) 20% by April 2024 for dialogue (CHD) At least 1 online public forum (RVI)	C – substantially did not meet expectation
2.4 Strengthen WLO's organisational/operational capacity of supported WLOs, including sub grants	5 new organizations supported by April 2024	A+ moderately exceeded expectation
2.5. Number of initiatives that supported political and peace building (formal negotiation or mediation) processes where WLO/women has representation (observer or officially consulted)	10 new examples of inclusive platforms in the Oromia talks by April 2024.	C – substantially did not meet expectation

Briefly describe the output’s activities and provide supporting narrative for the score. [max 1/2 page]

The majority of milestones under Output 2 were not met due to various challenges in design and implementation. CARE, HD and RVI, are still in the preparatory phases of the programme. While progress is being made, it is insufficient to meet the current milestones.

A key issue lies in the design of the milestones which are predominantly activity-based rather than measurable indicators tied to specific outcomes. This lack of specificity, combined with the absence of baseline data (for CARE, baseline relies on the completion assessment of the Rapid Gender Analysis on Power and Participation - RGA-P), has hindered the ability to measure progress effectively.

Additionally, CARE’s prolonged recruitment processes significantly delayed the execution of activities, further impeding program implementation. CARE also faced difficulties transitioning from a gender-based violence (GBV) focus under HARP Phase 1 to a WPS focus, requiring substantial adjustments in programming, capacity building, and stakeholder alignment. Furthermore, operational challenges in the Afar region, due to the lack of local women-led organizations (WLOs), hindered activity implementation and partnership building in the area. Due to these shortcomings, the overall output score has been rated as C.

Indicator 2.1: #/% women reporting a change in confidence in their own negotiation, communication and leadership skills

Milestone - Moderately did not meet expectation.

CARE implemented foundational activities to meet the milestone, including updating Rapid Gender Analysis on Power and Participation (RGA-P), training core project staff through the Women Leading in Emergencies (WLiE) Training of Trainers (ToT) program, and established four new WLiE groups (26 groups now in operation) Additionally, reflection sessions with eight existing WLiE groups and inception workshops for newly formed groups were completed, involving 457 participants. However, the milestone fell short in conducting co-creation sessions with the existing groups and initiating the implementation of action plans.

The RGA-P conducted across seven woredas in Tigray and Afar provided critical insights into gender dynamics, women’s participation in peacebuilding, and the impact of conflict on women. This assessment has laid foundation for targeted interventions and informed project planning. The ToT training for core project staff enhanced their ability to implement the WLiE model, focusing on women’s leadership in recovery and peacebuilding efforts.

CARE established 4 new WLiE groups from marginalized communities demonstrated inclusivity, with group selection criteria emphasizing diversity, representation, and commitment to fostering community cohesion. Inception workshops further strengthened partnerships with local stakeholders, raised awareness about women’s leadership in peacebuilding, and established mechanisms for continuous feedback and monitoring.

The program encountered challenges in completing co-creation sessions with existing WLiE groups and in initiating the action plans. These activities are crucial for ensuring the groups’ sustained engagement and translating their leadership into tangible outcomes. The delay could hinder the groups’ ability to implement strategies that align with the WPS agenda.

Indicator 2.2. % of community members (men & women) who report gender equitable attitudes on women's right and women's capacity as leaders and decision makers

Milestone- substantially did not met expectation

Most of the activities required to achieve this milestone are currently in progress but have not yet been completed. WLiE approach training has been delivered to CARE and WAT staff, while Engaging Men in Accountable Practices (EMAP) approach training is scheduled for the third quarter. A total of 24 men’s WLiE groups have been identified; however, the EMAP tool still needs to be adapted to integrate the principles of WPS, a task planned for the coming year. Additionally, community engagement and learning events are also set to take place in the upcoming year.

Indicator 2.3: Level of participation of women, girls and WLOs in dialogue, advocacy and platforms in regions such as Tigray, Somali, Oromia, Amhara and Afar

Milestone has substantially not met expectations.

CARE – no examples

HD – achieved an average of 26% participation rates, although results were variable. Capacity-building activities by HD’s local partner Inter-Religious Council of Ethiopia (IRCE) achieved 36% female participation, surpassing the milestone’s 20% target for inclusive dialogue. Similarly, HD facilitated roundtable with 25 women leaders in Oromia aligns with the milestone, as it provided a platform for women to engage in discussions on peacebuilding. However, the participation rates in other dialogue sessions, such as the one organized by I4C (28%) and HD’s facilitation training for Oromia MPs (14%), fall short of expectations. This indicates mixed results in achieving balanced representation.

RVI- hasn’t facilitated an online public forum. RVI hasn’t facilitated online public forum during the reporting period because they haven’t launched the Ethiopian Women’s Network for Education and Training (EWNET) yet.

Indictor 2.4: Strengthen WLO's organisational/operational capacity of supported WLOs, including sub grants.

Milestone- Exceeded expectation (6 new WLOs are supported)

A total of six Women-Led Organizations (WLOs) received sub-grants through the efforts of key partners: CARE, HD, ACCORD, and ELiDA.

CARE has sub-granted the Women’s Association of Tigray (WAT) and is in the process of extending support to an additional WLO operating in the Tigray and Afar regions. This demonstrates CARE’s commitment to bolstering the organizational capacity of women-led initiatives in conflict-affected areas.

HD is actively collaborating with the Oromia Women Peacebuilders Network. In partnership with Inclusive Peace (IP), an implementing partner under the ISF fund, HD is working to enhance the network’s internal capacity. These efforts are designed to strengthen the network’s operational capabilities, with promising initial developments anticipated soon.

The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD), as part of a newly contracted program, is providing technical support to two WLOs: the Network of Ethiopian Women Association (NEWA) and the African Women Peace and Security Institute (AWPSI). Under the newly contracted programme under HARP, the Empathy for Life Integrated Development Association (ELiDA) has sub-granted two WLOs Timran and Advocacy Center for Democracy and Development (ACDD).

Indicator 2.5. Number of initiatives that supported political and peace building (formal negotiation or mediation) processes where WLO/women has representation (observer or officially consulted)

Milestone: Substantially did not meet expectation

While efforts are ongoing to integrate WPS principles into peacebuilding activities through partnerships and engagement progress has been limited. HD has been working to create opportunities with Oromia peacebuilding network by raising the importance of inclusivity with stakeholders and conflict parties at the highest levels. However, the lack of high-level peace talks has delayed the establishment of formal platforms where women or women-led organizations (WLOs) can play a significant role, leaving the milestone unmet at this stage.

Describe any changes to this output during the past year, and any planned changes as a result of this review. [1 paragraph]

Output 2 must be updated to reflect the inclusion of two added projects. Additionally, the log fame requires revision to address its current shortcomings, including a lack specificity, measurability, and alignment. The indicators are vague, with no established baselines, targets, or clear methodologies for measurement. Furthermore, the milestones emphasize activities rather than demonstrating direct connections to the intended outcomes.

Two additional projects are added to this component. ACCORD as a lead consortium will provide strategic guidance and technical expertise to Network of Ethiopian Women’s Associations (NEWA) and, Africa Women Peace and Security Institute (AWPSI). Similarly, EliDA was onboarded as a lead consortium along with TIMRAN and Advocacy Center for Democracy and Development (ACCD).

Progress on recommendations from the previous AR (if completed), lessons learned this year and recommendations for the year ahead [1-2 paragraphs]

One of the recommendation from last year's AR was [BE and CARE to review how programme flexibility to address conflict escalations and related crises can be effectively and realistically captured in indicators and milestones and properly monitor] HARP underwent a business case addendum, output 2 was amended from GBV focus to women in peace, security and recovery thus no progress was made

Second recommendation was [BE could establish a cross-implementing partner forum for knowledge sharing. BE can also use such forums to utilise implementing partner knowledge to identify and address gaps to ensure that programming if multisectoral and effective] The HARP team held first coordination meeting in July. The meeting served as an introduction to both new and existing partners. The meeting aimed to provide an overview of each partner’s activities and foster collaboration among all stakeholders. The session concluded with RVI being designated to lead the next coordination meeting.

Lessons learned this year and recommendations for the year ahead

The challenges faced in achieving Output 2 milestones highlight critical lessons in program design and implementation. Firstly, the lack of specificity in the log frame indicators and the absence of baseline data significantly hindered effective progress tracking. The reliance on activity-based milestones, rather than outcome-focused indicators, limited the ability to measure tangible impacts on women’s participation in peacebuilding. Additionally, CARE’s transition from a GBV-focused approach under HARP Phase 1 to a WPS framework required substantial capacity building and operational adjustments, which were not sufficiently accounted for in the initial program design. The delayed recruitment process further compounded these issues, leading to setbacks in implementing key activities, particularly in regions like Afar, where the absence of local WLOs posed additional barriers.

Second lesson learned is the importance of adaptive management and strong coordination mechanisms. The limited progress in fostering inclusive platforms for women’s participation in formal peace negotiations, particularly in the Oromia talks, reflects the need for proactive engagement with high-level stakeholders to create opportunities for WLOs. Moving forward, strengthening institutional capacity support for WLOs, refining the log frame with measurable indicators, and fostering closer collaboration between implementing partners will be crucial to achieving sustainable outcomes. Key recommendation for the year ahead is listed below to leverage the lessons learned during this reporting period.

Recommendations	Timeline
CARE to prioritise institutional capacity support for local WLOs in Tigray and activities set up for Afar region before the closing of this year FY.	April 2025
BE Addis to revise the log frame to include well-defined, measurable indicators with established baselines, and realistic target to enable better tracking progress.	March 2025
HD to focus on enhancing the internal operational capacity of Oromia Women Peacebuilders Network.	June 2025
The new programme funded role to create avenue to foster stronger collaboration between CARE, CR and HD to ensure a more holistic approach to meeting the program’s goal	On going

Output Title	National human rights monitoring and early warning systems are strengthened, international monitoring increased
Output number:	3	Output Score:	A +
Impact weighting (%):	25	Weighting revised since last AR?	N/A

Indicator(s)	Milestone(s) for this review	Progress
Number of critical human right issues/ situations raised by UNOHCHR taken up in national and international fora.	8	A-Met expectation
% increase EHRC statements, reports and investigations on HR concerns published without political restrictions by joint initiative with OHCHR	% of EHRC public events/reports/media coverage disaggregated by joint initiative with OHCHR, CSOs, etc in 2023	C- Substantially did not meet expectation Not met
Number of reports and updates produced (confidential and public) on Human Rights including GBV/CRSV	350	A++ Substantially exceeded expectation
Number of early warning network setup (inclusive of women and youth)	1 Network	A++ Substantially exceeded expectation
Number of notes produced by the early warning network (EWN)	160	A++ substantially exceeded expectation

Briefly describe the output’s activities and provide supporting narrative for the score. [max 1/2 page]

A National human rights monitoring and early warning systems have been substantially strengthened during the reporting period, and international monitoring has increased. It is recommended that as soon as the Annual Review is completed, baselines and milestones are reviewed to ensure that these are realistic and capture progress effectively.

Indicator 3.1: Number of critical human right issues/ situations raised by UNOHCHR taken up in national and international fora

Milestone: Met expectation

We have tracked that at least 8 situations have been raised in national and international fora.

The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has highlighted serious human rights concerns in Ethiopia, particularly in the Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray regions. Rigorous monitoring documented 520 incidents affecting 5,327 civilians across 13 regions, with Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray experiencing the most violations. These include arbitrary detention, extrajudicial killings, sexual and gender-based violence, and forced displacement, which breach international human rights law. UNOHCHR reported that in Amhara, 217 incidents impacted 1,387 individuals; Oromia recorded 112 incidents affecting 890 people; and Tigray had 103 incidents impacting 2,164 individuals. OHCHR has stressed the need for gender-responsive and population-specific legal remedies, especially for women, children, and internally displaced persons (IDPs), to address systemic challenges and uphold the UN’s commitment to protecting vulnerable groups.

The OHCHR Regional Representative led a high-level delegation on field visits to Tigray and Amhara regions, meeting with all top regional officials to reiterate the importance of respect for the rule of law, human rights, accountability, good governance and essential for sustainable peace and security in these regions impacted by serious human rights issues.

The Office also issued a Public Update 2023 in June 2024, highlighting a systematic pattern of human rights violations, and making concrete recommendations to the Government. These include reflections and recommendations related to the nascent transitional justice process which was officially rolled out with the adoption of a national transitional justice policy in April 2024.

In Tigray the OHCHR office established monitoring centres and addresses issues such as the detention of individuals under the state of emergency laws. Through engagement with government officials, they have facilitated the legal regularization and release of detainees, including Eritrean asylum seekers. In the Afar-Tigray border region, advocacy efforts have contributed to significant reductions in human rights violations, with community discussions and peace negotiations now underway.

Overall OHCHR met dissemination goals presenting reports at international fora to amplify awareness and pushing for concrete measures, while targeted briefings were held with national authorities (ministries and different services) and human rights organizations to ensure these issues remained central to policy discussions and intervention strategies.

Indicator 3.2: % increase EHRC statements, reports and investigations on HR concerns published without political restrictions by joint initiative with OHCHR

Milestone: Substantially did not meet expectation

We cannot assess whether the EHCR joint action has increased and by what exact percentage. However, over the reporting period the the EHRC has issued 34 reports and statements on human rights issues based on investigations conducted through its regional offices in Semera, Assosa, Hawassa, Bahir Dar, Jimma, Jigjiga, Gambella, and Addis Ababa. Key activities included:

Prison and Police Monitoring in Tigray: EHRC assessed the treatment of prisoners in the region’s prisons and police stations to ensure compliance with human rights standards.

Mobile Complaint Handling in Oromia: In Bale and Arsi zones of Oromia, EHRC facilitated mobile complaint-handling sessions, receiving grievances from 26 individuals, including 11 women.

Monitoring Detentions in Oromia: The commission monitored four prisons and ten police stations in East Shewa, Arsi, Bale, and East Bale zones. This effort led to the release of 99 individuals held in arbitrary or unlawful detentions.

Investigations into Violations in Gambella: Investigations revealed severe human rights violations, including civilian killings, abductions, and property destruction. EHRC recommended accountability measures and urgent humanitarian assistance.

Investigations into Violations in Jimma: EHRC exposed unlawful evictions, advocating for a temporary halt to demolitions, fair compensation, and adherence to human rights standards. The findings prompted corrective actions from local authorities.

In June, EHRC has conducted monitoring elections held in parts of the country where the 6th general election was incomplete or required re-runs. The monitoring included the pre, during, and post-election stages from the perspective of adherence to human rights standards and principles. The monitoring was conducted in Afar, Benishangul Gumuz, Central Ethiopia and Somali regions through deployment of a total of 31 human rights monitoring experts (9 female and 22 male). On 28 June, following the elections, the EHRC has published a report detailing the findings.

EHRC’s presented its 11-Month Activity Report to the Parliament in July 2024) which covered achievements under the Ethiopian fiscal year. Focused on issues like IDPs, women, and persons with disabilities. The Standing Committee acknowledged EHRC’s work and urged further efforts in protecting vulnerable groups.

OHCHR facilitated Ethiopia’s submission to the Universal Periodic Review (UPR), providing essential technical support. Similarly, the Office facilitated a joint submission by the UNCT to the UPR secretariat. Significant progress was made in transitional justice, including the formation of Ethiopia’s first national victims’ consortium, involving seven victims’ associations from across the country. This initiative, in collaboration with the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and the International Centre for Transitional Justice, represents a vital step towards empowering victims and advancing justice.

Indicator 3.3: Number of reports and updates produced (confidential and public) on Human Rights including GBV/CRSV

Milestone: Substantially exceeded expectation

OHCHR's comprehensive documentation and advocacy work, with a strong focus on addressing gender-based violence (GBV) and promoting accountability, has exceeded expectations by producing 479 reports and additional one public report while contributing to other UN agencies reports.

In 2024, OHCHR produced 479 flash reports, conducted 51 field missions, and contributed to the release of 332 individuals (75 men, two women, seven boys, one girl, and 247 individuals of unspecified gender). The Office issued one public report/update in June 2024 (as already mentioned under Indicator 1). OHCHR contributed to the quarterly Global Horizontal Note (GHN) on child rights in collaboration with UNICEF and to multiple high-level reports, including the HC Annual Report to the HRC; reports on the Right to Development, Terrorism and Human Rights; UN support for Agenda 2063, the Death Penalty, National Human Rights Institutions (NHRIs), Reprisals for Cooperating with the UN; Assistance to Refugees, Returnees, and Displaced Persons in Africa; the Annual Report of the High Commissioner to the GA77; and the Report on the Protection of Civilians (PoC).

OHCHR efforts to address conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) involve partnerships with UNFPA for social counselling and awareness-raising on gender-based violence.

Considering the similarities between this indicator and the previous one, we will consider merging the two when reviewing the logframe.

Indictors 3.4: Number of early warning network setup (inclusive of women and youth) and notes produced by the early warning network (EWN)

Milestone Substantially exceeded expectation

OHCHR successfully established nine early warning networks across nine strategic locations, including Dessie, Shire, Mekelle, Bahir Dar, and Nekemte, to enable rapid identification and reporting of human rights violations and emerging threats. These networks, supported by local community members, have proven vital in gathering timely information from conflict-affected areas despite challenging conditions. The early warning network incorporated gender-sensitive approaches, highlighting the differentiated impacts on women, children, and vulnerable groups, including internally displaced persons (IDPs). These insights informed targeted advocacy and response strategies.

OHCHR Team in Tigray have established early warning networks across multiple zones, training human rights monitors and collaborating with a consortium of stakeholders, including the government and CSOs, for coordinated action. Challenges persist, including the presence of mines, limited DDR resources affecting reintegration opportunities, contested areas delaying IDP returns.

Indictor 3.5. Number of notes produced by the early warning network (EWN)

Milestone: Substantially exceeded expectation

OHCHR’s early warning networks generated 460 verified alerts, resulting in 220 detailed reports and 135 advocacy interventions. These actions significantly raised awareness and drove targeted responses at national and international levels. Additionally, documentation of 520 human rights violations, affecting over 5,300 civilians, provided critical evidence to support accountability and advocacy efforts, particularly in conflict-affected regions such as Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray. The focus of these reports has been on documenting critical incidents, such as extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detentions, GBV, and threats to civilians. Reports from newly established networks in Dessie, Shire, and Mekelle have been instrumental; with Dessie’s alone generating 21 alerts that led to 13 reports and four advocacy actions.

Shire and Mekelle’s networks contributed to additional reports and advocacy interventions, on the protection of civilians impacted by the humanitarian situation in the contested areas of Tigray region and the continuing impacts of the Eritrean Defense Force (EDF) in parts of Tigray region. This early warning mechanism has not only enhanced OHCHR’s monitoring capabilities but also enabled targeted, evidence-based advocacy to address emerging human rights concerns swiftly.

OHCHR early warning network promoted gender-sensitive monitoring and ensured that the differentiated impacts on women, children, and vulnerable groups, such as IDPs, were incorporated into advocacy and response strategies. Efforts to engage with the government have also been impactful, including advocacy for accountability and fair trials in Somali and Harari regions.

Describe any changes to this output during the past year, and any planned changes as a result of this review. [1 paragraph]

Output 3 has expanded to better reflect and account for OHCHR and EHRC monitoring and investigative capacities. In particular, the new indicators are better suited to understand how Early Warning networks and alerts play for prevention of human rights violations. However, it is recommended to review milestones and ensure these are ambitious enough.

Progress on recommendations from the previous AR (if completed), lessons learned this year and recommendations for the year ahead [1-2 paragraphs]

DIHR made good progress on last years’ recommendations. It updated up 85% of the EHRC IT equipment, conducted 12 internal thematic training sessions, with emphasis on monitoring and investigations, and worked EHRC outreach by exploring the setting up of satellite offices and focal-person models for remote operations.

The DIHR and EHRC have also made significant progress in evaluating the impact of EHRC reporting, investigative analysis, and engagement with domestic institutions to enhance human rights uptake.

OHCHR also made good progress on capacity building and organized 11 training sessions across Mekelle, Wukro, Adigrat, Shire, Bahir Dar, Dessie, and Hawassa, benefiting 394 participants (315 men and 79 women) from the police, judiciary, and law enforcement. These sessions focused on improving access to justice, strengthening human rights monitoring, and enhancing the capacity of officials to uphold human rights and the rule of law.

A significant challenge persists in gathering reliable data from conflict-affected and access-restricted regions. Security concerns and limited access have hindered timely and comprehensive documentation. To address these obstacles, OHCHR adopted innovative measures, including increased remote monitoring and strengthened partnerships with local actors, who have played a crucial role in providing on-the-ground information.

Finally, DIHR/EHRC should still improve monitoring of implementation of EHRC recommendations, and number of statements/reports published more systematically, including what those reports and statements achieved.

Recommendations	Timeline
1	OHCHR to continue improving data collection and monitoring in hard-to-reach areas, including conflict areas.	December 2025
2	DIHR/EHRC should monitor implementation of EHRC recommendations, and number of statements/reports published more systematically	December 2025

Output Title	Increased exposure of HMG, international and national actors to quality conflict research and analysis, and conflict sensitivity advice/support, provided in response to demand
Output number:	4	Output Score:	A
Impact weighting (%):	15	Weighting revised since last AR?	N/A

Indicator(s)	Milestone(s) for this review	Progress
Demand for RVI analysis from FCDO and external partners as expressed by number of attendees at all types of briefings (disaggregated where possible).	15 number of participants attend internal briefings and public events in April 2024	A+ moderately exceeded expectation. (more than 15 number of participants attend internal briefings)
Number of downloads / Online interactions with publicly available research (disaggregated by their affiliation – CSO, diplomatic etc)	130 number of downloads from RVI's website. Increased number of online engagements of PRF's outputs across RVI's social media platforms by 2% since April 2024	C substantially did not meet expectation – RVI doesn’t have analytics tools to track number of downloads and monitor feedback on social media.
Number of FCDO and partners staff attending conflict sensitivity trainings / programme specific engagement	12 participants attend conflict sensitivity trainings since April 2024	A+ moderately exceeded expectation (16 participants attended Conflict Sensitivity training)
Establishment of, and level of partner engagement with, Conflict Sensitivity Hub (in collaboration with Mercy Corps)	No defined milestone and baseline for 2024, component in inception phase.	Not scored because activity is planned for the coming year, and there is no milestone to measure at this stage.

Briefly describe the output’s activities and provide supporting narrative for the score. [max 1/2 page]

Output 4 has been changed to better track how investment in the Peace Facility and Conflict research translate into improvement of conflict sensitive policy making and programme design. It has also changed to include the creation of a Conflict Sensitivity Hub which will be run by RVI in collaboration with Mercy Corps. In 2025 the hub will start delivering bespoke conflict sensitivity support.

Indicator 4.1: Demand for RVI analysis from FCDO and external partners as expressed by number of attendees at all types of briefings (disaggregated where possible).

Milestone: Output Moderately exceeded expectation (more than 15 number of participants attend internal briefings).

The milestone for this output indicator exceeded expectation, reflecting the sustained demand for the RVI’s conflict analysis. High attendance at bulletin debriefs highlights the value placed on RVI’s expertise by key international stakeholders, including diplomatic missions such as the US Embassy and the Embassies of Sweden, France, Belgium, Japan, and Australia, as well as development agencies like USAID, GIZ, and the EU. Participants frequently provide formal and informal feedback, emphasizing the utility of RVI’s insights in shaping their missions and programming. Additionally, RVI hosted a well-received briefing for visitors from the Royal College of Défense Studies, whose written feedback the critical role of RVI’s research in promoting stability and informing development strategies in Ethiopia.

Beyond its regular briefings, RVI’s expertise continues to attract interest from researchers and journalists. Two journalists recently sought RVI’s input for reports on the Fano insurgency in the Amhara region and salt politics in the Afar region. The relevance of RVI’s outputs remains evident, with the Afar report published in September 2023 still being cited as a valuable resource. This sustained interest and positive feedback from diverse audiences reaffirm RVI’s pivotal role in providing high-quality conflict research and analysis, further enhancing its reputation as a trusted knowledge partner for HMG, FCDO, and international stakeholders.

Indictor 4.2. Number of downloads / Online interactions with publicly available research (disaggregated by their affiliation – CSO, diplomatic etc)

Milestone: substantially did not meet expectation

This milestone was not met due to the lack of analytics tools to track number of downloads and monitor social media feedbacks. To improve, RVI should invest in analytics software, enhance social media strategies, and adjust the indicator to focus on broader, measurable metrics, ensuring more realistic goals and better tracking of outreach efforts.

Indictor 4.3 Number of FCDO and partners staff attending conflict sensitivity trainings / programme specific engagement

Milestone: moderately exceeded expectation (16 participants attended Conflict Sensitivity training)

This milestone has been exceeded, with 16 participants attending the training. This training, held in April 2024, provided FCDO staff with valuable insights into the principles of conflict sensitivity. Furthermore, discussions are ongoing to organize a follow-up session that will focus on the practical application of conflict sensitivity in programme context, ensuring that staff are equipped to implement these principles at programme level. This demonstrates efforts to reinforce and expand conflict sensitivity knowledge to the broader embassy staff are actively progressing.

Indictor 4.4 Establishment of, and level of partner engagement with, Conflict Sensitivity Hub (in collaboration with Mercy Corps)

Milestone: no defined milestone and baseline

This indictor was not included in the annual review, as the primary activity is planned for the coming year, and there is no milestone to measure at this stage. Nonetheless, progress has been made towards this objective. The pilot project on conflict sensitivity, conducted in partnership with Mercy Corps and supported by GAC, concluded successfully. This pilot paved the way for continued collaboration between RVI and Mercy Corps, leading to the development of a joint proposal for the establishment of a Conflict Sensitivity Hub in Ethiopia. With technical support from Adapt Peacebuilding, the proposal was submitted in early September to potential founding funders, including GAC, FCDO, and USAID. Positive feedback was received from GAC and FCDO, which has been addressed collaboratively. Although the Hub’s establishment is still ongoing, RVI continues to play a pivotal role in its development, reflecting significant progress toward achieving this objective.

Progress on recommendations from the previous AR (if completed), lessons learned this year and recommendations for the year ahead [1-2 paragraphs]

The first recommendation from last year’s AR was [BE to further development conflict sensitivity engagement with FCDO and provide similar service to HARP partners]. RVI has conducted 2 conflict sensitivity assessment for CETI team and delivered one training for wider embassy staff.

Second recommendation was [RVI to consider innovative way to improve analysis uptake and dissemination, including by utilising relationships across the HARP programme, building external engagement, and increasing its sensitisation to policy and programming needs] RVI has developed a new dissemination strategy which included briefings across the office and with wider stakeholders (e.g. development partners) has helped in engaging in deeper conversations with likeminded partners and increased PRF analysis outreach. However, there is scope to better utilize the findings of the analyses produced overall and to strengthen the nexus between analysis and conflict sensitivity and to elaborate practical recommendations that would enable better engagement by policy and programme teams.

RVI reported the narrowing of Civic Space, and while remains unaffected, researchers could face challenges in their operations.

Recommendations	Timeline
1	RVI to strengthen the link between its analysis and conflict sensitivity by developing more practical, actionable recommendations tailored to the need of policy and programme teams	June 2025
2	BE Addis to ensure smooth and timely delivery of the Conflict sensitivity hub implemented by Mercy Corps.	June 2025
3	BE Addis to establish a clear milestones and baseline for all indictors	March 2025
4	RVI to invest on analytics tools to track disaggregated data and improve the measurement of online interactions and engagement.	March 2025

D: VALUE FOR MONEY (1 page)

Key cost drivers and performance

The programme has shown significant improvements in Value for Money (VfM) during its second phase. The main cost drivers have been consolidated, with the majority of the budget allocated to project activities and project staff costs across all implementing partners. The programme includes four outputs delivered by eleven partners, with contributions across fifteen output indicators. Performance of the partners are measured against FCDO programme delivery compliance that includes the logframe. The key cost drivers of the programmes are staff fee rate (10.5%), direct/frontline costs (77.5%), Programme management and oversight (5.6%) and (6.5%) of NAPC. These drivers were agreed with the programme delivery team over a robust scrutiny and negotiation in the initial proposal and consecutive cost extensions to achieve best value for money including ensuring staff rate proposed by partners are in line with the framework band rate for a similar expert, NPAC costs are less than (by 5.5%) of the overall project cost in line with best-practice and expenses are in line with global polices and FCDO marker rates.

A VFM matrix was developed and sent out for implementing partners to fill, the matrix is a comprehensive tool which collects information about Value for Money metrics/strategies for activities, ideally with reference to the 4 E’s framework (economy, efficiency, effectiveness, equity). Its aim is to capture tangible examples rather a generic response or justification for what is affecting the Programme effectiveness (e.g. weakness of link between output and outcome) or efficiency (e.g. economic reform, conflict etc.). Few partners such as DIHR and RVI have responded using the tool while others have chosen to report VFM details on other reports, therefore the programme team should continue to follow up to make sure implementing partners will use the tool to report.

The following provides an overview of the VfM achievements, categorised by the 4Es:

Economy

Implementing partners have leveraged long-term relationships with suppliers and consultants, negotiating for better pricing on inputs of appropriate quality. The suppliers follow clear and well-established procurement policies that ensure a competitive bidding and negotiation process, delivering a good value for money. Though an open competitive bidding process, DIHR successfully negotiated hotel accommodation costs, made a 40% saving from the initial allocated budget for the activities. Similarly, CARE utilised in-house resources instead of outsourcing during RGA P data collection, resulting in a 72% saving from the original allocated activity budget.

Following the Ethiopian macroeconomic reforms, partners reported savings, particularly for expenses in ETB, which are being used to fund additional activities including supporting 4 local CSO’s on the WPS. Consolidated savings for HARP as reported by IPs have come to around £345,100 based on the indicative budget for this year. The assessment is ongoing and not final with potential of more savings to be allocated to additional activities, partners such as DIHR have planned to allocate it for salary adjustment of the project staff. The macroeconomic reforms haven’t led to significant savings due to the inflation; as some of the savings were used to offset rising costs in areas such as fuel, car rent, hotel, professional fees etc.. Additionally, the majority of the partners’ expenditures are in GBP/USD which has further limited the overall savings.

Efficiency

The programme has demonstrated a degree (2 out of 4 output) of efficiency in converting inputs/activities to output focusing on partners ability to deliver on time and within the allocated budget when possible, optimizing the results.

In Output 1, there was no strong evidence of efficiency due to the delay in UNDP and HD core activities. This is primarily caused by the stall in Oromia peace talks, which significantly impacted HD’s ability to demonstrate efficiency, as most of the activities were designed to support this specific initiative. Additionally, the prolonged commencement of the DDR program resulted in a small number of ex-combatants being inserted back into their community as civilians.

However, CR demonstrated good efficiency in delivering results within the planned budget and timeline. One of CR’s key achievement was establishing a connection with the secretariat leading the federal transitional justice initiative under the Ministry of Justice. This connection provided critical support for the regional TRC and influenced the development of the emerging federal TRC and other transitional justice mechanisms, which significantly contributed to the prevention of violence in the Somali region. However, CR’s contribution constituted only a small portion of the expected output result.

On Output 3; On human right monitoring and strengthening the early warning system though enhancing capacity of the investigation bodies and equipping skilled experts to report on HRs incidents. This includes providing improved facilities for conducting right surveys, producing impartial reports and establishing an early warning network. Despite Ethiopia’s conflict context and resource constraint, DIHR and OHCHR able to deliver robust human rights reports and investigations were published, improving the contextual understanding of FCDO and partners during the review period. These demonstrated a strong VfM, scoring A+ and above with 4 out 5 outputs target.

On output 4; RVI demonstrated good efficiency by achieving agreed research priorities, delivering a seminar series to HMG and stakeholders. The Peace Research Facility employed highly qualified consultants and implemented a rigorous quality control process for research and analysis including internal and external review processes contribute to the outputs from the Facility which resulted in producing high quality research and analysis for the general public, partners and FCDO. FCDO and partners informed their programmes and policies based on the findings.

Output 2, CARE didn’t demonstrate efficiency. Several challenges were identified that impacted efficiency. These includes CARE prolonged recruitment process, delay in finalizing core activities such as the Rapid Gender Analysis and setting up a local Women led partner in Afar. These factors collectively contributed to delays in key activities resulting in the failure to meet the expected targets within the planned timeline and budget. Programme team will work with the partner to fast-track activities in the coming quarters.

Effectiveness

The programme has demonstrated varying levels of effectiveness in converting outputs into outcomes, reflecting both success and challenges in achieving value for money. While Outcome 1 and 4 were successfully achieved, Outcomes 2 and 3 were not fully met, indicating improvements are needed. The main challenges identified are the inequalities limiting women’s participation in decision making, inadequate enforcements of human rights recommendations and rising political violence in key regions. Implicating lesson learnt on to strategize allocations of resources to bridge gaps between outputs and outcomes.

The ONLF mediation dialogue work facilitating series of discussions between the top leadership of the ONLF and the government, the Somali-Afar dialogue involving USRI and AFIA Intellectual Association focusing on addressing the root causes of conflict and developing a roadmap for stakeholder engagement, the Somali-Oromo dialogue convened to identify entry points for conflict resolution and the Moyale dialogue work that led to the formation of a local Council for Peace and Unity, which successfully de-escalated tensions by establishing new communication channels between the Oromo and Somali communities illustrate how programme outputs have directly contributed to the effective achievement of the outcome: Armed Conflict Managed or Resolved Non-violently.

Despite efforts, the programme faced challenges in converting outputs into tangible outcomes for Outcome 2. CARE established 26 Women Leading in Emergencies (WLiE) groups and facilitated roundtable with women leaders to enhance women’s participation in peacebuilding process. However, advocacy wins based on women’s priorities were not confirmed due to persistent socio-political barriers limiting women’s involvement in decision making.

For the outcome: Reduced Human Rights Abuses and Increased Atrocity Prevention: considering the conflict context of Ethiopia, an increase in human right abuses and atrocity in regions like Oromia and Amhara is still prevalent. However, intervention such as the early warning networks and human right monitoring improved capturing data on the atrocity and HR abuses which informs FCDO and its partners in addressing critical human rights issues, promoting dialogue and integrating human rights considerations into domestic policies.

RVI providing FCDO and partners with monthly bulletin, for which participants have communicated the analysis is informing their mission and programming activities as well as the facility have conducting reviews of 1) the Accelerate program, implemented by GIZ, to assess its conflict sensitivity measures and 2),the Manufacturing Africa program which focuses on conflict dynamics and conflict sensitivity risks assessment related to their project work in conflict prone region shows evidence starting of progress towards achieving the outcome of Conflict analysis and Research and conflict sensitivity advice/support informed programmatic and diplomatic approach by HMG as well as national and international actors.

Equity

The programme demonstrates strong commitment to inclusion and equity, with a specific focus on gender and vulnerable populations, which integral to its design. HARP effectively integrated GESI principles into its project activities, achieving equitable VfM by promoting equal participation, with particular focus on women and people with disability. Gender-disaggregated data was consistently reported, ensuring women’s representation in all activities. For example, for DDR out of 75,000 XCs, the quota for women and people with disabilities is set between 35,000 - 40,000 which shows the priority given to marginalised groups in the process. Based on data currently on hand the first demobilisation process consisted of 4,314 (71%) male and 1,741 (29%) female. One recommendation would be going forward for the implementing partner (UNDP) to report to FCDO team with disaggregated data for people with disability as well. The expansion of partnerships, especially on Women Peace and Security, enabled a broader reach, targeting women-led organisations and marginalised groups across diverse regions. It prioritized building the capacity of WLO to enhance opportunities for women meaningful participation at all decision-making including dialogue mediation and peace process. Partners employed localised approaches to ensure culturally appropriate engagement and equitable resource distribution.

Assessment of whether the programme continues to represent value for money

In conclusion despite some clear areas for improvement, there is sufficient evidence to suggest that the programme is on track to offering VFM with its cost-effective delivery, achieving its outcomes and ensuring inclusive participation in all activities.

E: RISK [½ to 1 page]

Overview of risk management [1/2 page]

The programme’s overall risk level remains major, consistent throughout the year. Overall risk categories are within the risk appetite of the office, and therefore no escalation was required.

Risk remains a standing agenda item during monthly progress meeting with partners. The team conducts quarterly review and updates of the HARP risk register, as well as on an ad hoc basis when necessary – for instance, when incorporating new component with unique risks or during partners DCRM reviews. Recently, the Africa directorate risk lead reviewed the HARP risk register and recommended to reduce the overall risk level to “Moderate” given that most individual risk rating are already moderate after mitigation measures. The team plan to review the risk register once finalize the mobilization of the new components (end of January).

The following key risks have been identified as risk for the programme:

Strategy and Context (Major): The programme faces two major risks under this category.

1. Changing Conflict and Political Dynamics: Shifts at the federal and/or regional levels may restrict access to areas of implementation or undermine progress. The team closely monitor the situation, follow up with implementing partners and conduct political-economic analysis and situation briefings under its Peace Research Facility component and hold regular risk discussions with partners.

2. Communication Blackouts: Restrictions in communication, particularly in conflict-affected areas (part of Amhara and Oromia), hinder research and programme implementation. Implementing partners ensure confidentiality in activities, triangulating and uses multiple information sources to gather data effectively.

Policy and Programme Delivery (Moderate): There is a risk that the impact of programme activities may be limited by reduced access to or acceptance from political actors, including state and non-state actors involved in regional dialogue and peace processes. Mitigation strategies involve conducting conflict analysis, actor mapping, building positive relationships with stakeholders, and clear communication regarding programme goals.

Finance and Fiduciary (Major): The risk of aid diversion, fraud, and corruption remains significant risk in the complex and rapidly changing delivery context. Programme team has conducted Due Diligence Assessment (DDA) to evaluate partners fund management capacity. Findings and recommendation were discussed with implementing partners in quarterly bases. Updated the delivery risk chain mapping to include new downstream partners and associated risk. In addition, independent audits were conducted of FCDO funds which the team received audits report (CARE, HD, CR and DIHR), the audit reports confirmed that there is no significant error, omissions or misstatement. As part of the quarterly report partners report on aid diversion and fraud, including NIL response.

Safeguarding (Major): The risk remains major as the conflict in part of Oromia and Amhara continued. The DDAs including the refreshers that are conducted to assess IP understanding and safeguarding measures provide assurance that majority partners have a robust system. However, the National Demobilisation and Reintegration Programme DDA highlighted that there is a high safeguarding and protection risk on staff and beneficiaries due to limited capacity and poor reporting mechanism of the government and its downstream. An action plan was developed based on DDA findings and discussed with implementing partner. Programme team will follow-up on the progress in quarterly basis. Also, UNDP reflected the risk on their programme level risk register and review their progress frequently.

An open safeguarding case (Priority 3) was formally investigated by FCDO’s Safeguarding Investigation Team in London using survivor- centre approach. The investigation confirmed inappropriate behaviour did occur and victim focused action were taken. The case is now closed. The management of this case demonstrated that partner robust escalation and response mechanism to a complex safeguarding issue.

Reputational (Major): There is a risk to the UK's reputation due to support for the demobilisation process with the government and funding provided to ex-combatants. This risk is mitigated through regular check-ins with UNDP to review communication strategies and manage expectations, emphasising that national demobilisation, reintegration and reinsertion is one part of the broader political solution to end conflict.

Regarding DDAs, all implementing partners have a DDA in place, currently programme team have completed refreshers for those that have passed 3 years since the first assessment (DIHR, CARE, CR) and waiting for final sign off, the findings are in progress or addressed completely. For example, CR had a recommendation to develop a plan or framework for partnership with government and other organisations engaged in the project in a form of project agreement/MOU with central and regional government, CR has since made an MOU with the Somali regional government, Somali region Truth and Reconciliation Commission and Initiative for Change. For CARE one of the findings were that they had limited experience in undertaking GBV response in conflict driven emergencies, the action plan agreed was for CARE to escalate any risks related to project quality and for FCDO to arrange monthly finance and project progress update. The action plans have been acted upon and programme team in FCDO have been carrying out catch up meetings to discuss difficulties and drive solutions with the advice from technical advisors. For DIHR the major finding was it not being a member of IATI, they are still not a member but have mentioned their development partners are publishing on IATI. FCDO team have once again put a recommendation on the DDA refresher to discuss and agree with DIHR for them to publish on the platform, but the FCDO team should closely follow up on the action plan.

F: PROGRAMME MANAGEMENT: DELIVERY, COMMERCIAL & FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE [1 - 1 ½ pages]

Delivery

For phase two of programme started with a kick off meeting with partners as the programme significantly expanded in scope growing from selected regional coverage to national wide implementation, increasing its budget from £4.5m to £41m and expanding its partnership from 4 to 11 organizations. The meeting served to build awareness, foster coordination amongst implementing partners and provide an opportunity to partners to familiarise themselves with each other works. This engagement sparks interest in leveraging respective projects and experience while sharing lesson from phase one delivery. The key highlighted of the meeting was the need to strengthen coordination among partners working towards similar goals and strong appetite for sharing of RVI analysis across all partners and conflict sensitivity support where relevant/possible.

Following the project launch, HARP team collaborated with all 11 partners to update the programme log frame. The revised log frame aimed to capture partners contribution across four core long-term outcomes and intermediate outputs, with contribution across fifteen output indicators. However, the large number of indicators increase complexity, particularly in tracking and measuring results/milestones. Despite the all-round process into updating the log frame, some milestones were found difficult to measure during the annual review. The AR recommended further refinement to the log frame to address these gaps.

Regarding compliance and reporting, under FCDO grant agreements, partner are required to submit quarterly report except UN agencies, due to the pool fund arrangement. Partners uses a formal reporting template for the narrative and finance report provided by the team which includes report against agreed KPI and safeguarding, fraud and aid diversion cases, including NIL responses.

Out of the 11 implementing partners, 9 consistently adhered reporting requirements, submitting timely and accurate quarterly/biannual narrative and financial reports. However, two partners faced challenges: While fulfilling reporting obligations, CARE experienced consistent delay in activity implementation. These delays hindered progress measurement against the log frame, as key supporting reports for milestone tracking were often unavailable. Additionally, financial reports contained inaccuracies, with significant variance between forecast and spend. CHD financial reports were significantly delayed and shows significant underspend which required multiple rounds of communication with the programme team to address gaps. The disrupted the programme cycle by causing delays in processing payments and making it challenging to consolidate results achieved within the timeframe. These challenges were further compounded by the expansion of HARP, which introduced additional implementing partners and projects in new geographical areas. As a result, the programme team had to dedicate increased effort to manage these complexities, including addressing non-compliance issues.

Furthermore, to manage this growing complexity and enhance coherence, the decision was made to introduce a programme-funded post. These moves aim to strengthen programme implementation, improve impact evaluation, ensure VfM and better highlighted FCDO policy and priorities within the programme.

During the review period, all IP’s updated their delivery chain mapping (DCM) and delivery chain risk mapping (DCRM). While the DCM identifies all downstream partners involved in delivering project activities, the DCRM helps the programme team to understand, capture and manage the risks towards the downstream partners, especially on fraud and aid diversion.

Additionally, in response to the Ethiopia government economic reform announcement, FCDO Programme Delivery and Excellency Lead (PDEL) team provided a briefing to partners the negative and positive impact of the policy change to the FCDO projects. Partners subsequently, conducted analysis of the macro-economic impact, identifying savings in some areas, which were redirected to optimize results in the WPS component of HARP, as detailed in the VFM section.

Despite various challenges, the programme demonstrated strong compliance with FCDO PRoF rules and procedures, with implementing partners largely adhering to report requirement and risk management frameworks. The strengthened coordination mechanisms, ongoing monitoring and refinement to Programme implementation are expected to further enhance effectiveness and impact.

Commercial

In this phase, eight accountable grants (CR, DIHR, CARE, HD, RVI, Mercy Corps, ACCORD, ELiDA), two MOUs (UNOHCHR, UNDP), and one commercial contract (Adam Smith International) were signed. The programme team reviewed the project and budget proposal, first to check whether the funding represents VFM or not which was then further reviewed by the PDEL team before signing of the agreements. Amendments to grants were made for scaling up project activities and increasing funding, ensuring that activities remained aligned with the programme’s strategic goals. Accountable grant and MOU amendments were done for: CARE with scaling up project activities and increasing the amount by £2.8M, CHD for the amount of £997K, CR increasing the amount by £1.9m, DIHR by scaling up the activities and increasing the amount by £1.8M, OHCHR for the amount of £1.8M and RVI increasing the amount by £35K and adding additional activities. All accountable grant agreements end dates are March 2027.

Financials

Implementing partners financial reports were understandable, timely and faithful representation of project activity costs. They all demonstrate an internal control process for fund management and provided audited statements for FCDO funds with the opinions of the audit firms on the audit report being unqualified/not modified.

For the three projects that have passed a year since implementation we have received their report and here is each’s audit opinion

Peace by Piece (CR)- The independent auditors opinion shows that their financial report presents fairly and that in all material respects the receipts and disbursement made by the IP is in line with the provisions of the Grant Agreement.

Consolidating the EHRC (DIHR)- The independent auditors stated that the project financial statements are in all material respect correct and prepared in accordance with the FCDO guidelines.

Women’s Leadership in Recovery, Peace, and Security in Tigray and Afar, Ethiopia (CARE)- The independent auditors stated that the statement of expenditure presents fairly in all material respects and that there was no reportable non-compliance.

Activity based budgets were provided by each IP at the start of phase two, which have been updated quarterly as forecast and spend. Spend reports have shown a variance in forecasted amounts mainly due to the macro-economic reform which have, in some instances, doubled the available funds. The risks associated with this have been mitigated by communicating with partners on actions such as having majority of funds in foreign currency reserve to avoid devaluation and the addition/expansion of activities.

Summary of programme budget vs spend report as of Jan 2024.

The overall allocated budget for this fiscal year was £15m, and the utilisation as of January 2024 is estimated to be around £14m making the utilisation rate for the year in respect for the year budget 93%.

Component	Total Budget	Spend to date	Balance	Utilisation Rate
301191-101	£4,519,727.85	£2,984,970.13	£1,534,757.72	66.04%
301191-102	£3,700,008.87	£2,657,552.09	£1,042,456.78	71.83%
301191-103	£4,071,709.00	£1,714,288.56	£2,357,420.44	42.10%
301191-402	£1,800,000.00	£600,000.00	£1,200,000.00	33.33%
301191-403	£16,000,000.00	£10,000,000.00	£6,000,000.00	62.50%
301191-404	£1,050,000.00	£124,864.00	£925,136.00	11.89%
301191-405	£2,351,334.00	£465,634.00	£1,885,700.00	19.80%
301191-406	£593,740.93	£192,980.00	£400,760.93	32.50%
301191-407	£500,000.00	£52,704.25	£447,295.75	10.54%
301191-408	£1,008,692.60	£200,000.00	£808,692.60	19.83%
301191-409	£854,266.59	£173,102.00	£681,164.59	20.26%
Total	£36,449,479.84	£19,166,095.03	£17,283,384.81	52.58%

Note: the above Budget vs Spend reflects the overall lifetime budget for each year and only the projects that have started before January 2024, upcoming projects are not included in the detail hence the difference in total of the programme budget which is £41M.

G: MONITORING, EVIDENCE AND LEARNING [1/2 - 1 page]

Monitoring and Evaluation

Throughout the review period, most HARP partners have maintained a rigorous approach to monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL), aiming to understand performance, outputs, accountability, and learning. While most partners use traditional or participatory MEL approaches, some implementing partners have adopted pioneering monitoring and evaluation methods. For the review period there were monitoring visits made to implementation areas such as the visit to Jijgjiga and Mekelle. More over there were key informative interviews done with implementing partners, downstream partners and beneficiaries.

HD employs an adaptive approach to MEL that integrates the best elements of traditional log-frame methods while utilizing an expanded evidence base. This approach demonstrates strong performance and provides a realistic framework for assessing the value of its peace-making efforts.

CARE implements a systematic and participatory MEAL approach to ensure comprehensive tracking of project outcomes and impacts. Similarly, UNHCR employs the Performance Monitoring System (PMS), an internet-based tool for planning, monitoring, and reporting in alignment with results-based management principles.

CR adopted Outcome Harvesting, a monitoring and evaluation approach that combines elements of ‘outcome mapping’—focusing on behavioural changes—and ‘utilization-focused evaluation,’ which prioritizes making evaluations as useful as possible for intended users.

At the program level, HARP continues to rely on its log frame for monitoring and evaluating impact. The log frame remains a critical tool for structuring M&E processes at the progamme level. However, challenges such as ensuring alignment with evolving program goals, addressing data, quality issues and effectively communicating outcomes often arise. These can hinder the ability to capture comprehensive and accurate impacts. To address these challenges, the added M&E component under the new Business Case addendum aims to enhance programmatic coherence, improve delivery and communication of results, and ensure value for money across all components.

This new M&E component will refine the theory of change, improve policy alignment, and strengthen the delivery and communication of results. It will provide technical support to partners, conduct evaluations as needed, and develop learning and knowledge products to inform the broader program. By addressing challenges related to the log frame and integrating these recommendations, HAPR can enhance its ability to demonstrate value for money and deliver impactful results.

Evidence

ACLED data and public statements from the EHRC provide valuable evidence for assessing progress in the M&E framework of the programme. ACLED data offers quantitative insights into the frequency, geographic distribution, and trends of conflict or political violence, enabling the programme to measure changes over time in target regions. Statements and reports from EHRC provide qualitative evidence of shifts in timely human right related reports complementing broader perspectives of the programme impact on Human right situation in the country.

In this review, ACLED data has been used to track milestones. while EHRC reports and statements highlight progress in advocacy efforts. For example, ACLED data shows various percentages of increase and decrease of violent incidents in different regions specifically illustrated in Outcome 1. Additionally, EHRC statements were assessed in Outcome 3. By triangulating these sources with other data, the HARP ensures robust evidence to influence outcomes.

Learning

For the programme the learning we found through this review period is to continue supporting women's inclusion in decision-making processes through strengthened networks while leveraging community dialogue events to sustain local-level advocacy and promote collective action.

For wider FCDO learning would be to enhance collaboration among partners to streamline the use of research and analysis in programming. As well as advocate for gender representation as a precondition for engagement in peace negotiations. And finally to expand efforts to link monitoring systems with real-time responses and early interventions.

Date of last narrative financial report	CR – Oct 2024 DIHR – Nov 2024 CARE – Nov 2024 CHD – Nov 2024 OHCHR- Nov 2024 RVI - Oct 2024 Adam Smith - Nov 2024	Date of last audited annual statement	CR – Oct 2024 DIHR – Jul 2024 CARE – Oct 2024